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The
Prabowo- Jordanian Connection
02/02/00
Stratfor Special Report
Summary
The planned deployment of a
brigade of Jordanian troops to East Timor, as part of the international
peacekeeping force, is raising alarms in the former Indonesian-occupied
territory. Jordan has had longstanding ties with a top, hard-line
military official of the old Suharto regime. The motives of Jordan's
government are questionable. And the pending arrival of the troops
strongly suggests that members of the Suharto regime are using old
connections in the Arab world to stir up trouble in Timor – and
ultimately in Jakarta.
Analysis
On Jan. 22, Jose Ramos-Horta, an
East Timorese independence leader, raised concern at the announcement
that 720 Jordanian troops will join the U.N.
peacekeeping force in East Timor. Horta cited a reportedly
longstanding connection between the Jordanian government and retired Lt.
Gen. Prabowo Subianto, former commander of Indonesia's Kopassus special
forces and son-in-law of former President Suharto.
Interestingly, Jordan has been the
only nation to volunteer to patrol the northwestern enclave of Oecussi,
a site of significant militia violence despite the presence of 8,900
U.N. peacekeepers on the island. The East Timorese are concerned because
Prabowo – feared and despised in East Timor – has reportedly had
close ties to King Abdullah of Jordan. The Jordanian troops may not, in
fact, stop militia fighters from continuing to harass the East Timorese.
But the connection may run deeper. Hard-liners from the Suharto era may
be using connections in the Arab world to stir trouble back home.
The best known of these
connections is the one between Prabowo, a special forces officer, and
King Abdullah, also a commando. The two attended foreign military
training together, according to the Australian Associated Press, and
both returned home to command special forces units assigned to internal
security missions. According to the Jakarta Post, the two men set up
military exchange programs between their respective armed forces during
the Suharto years. When Suharto resigned from the presidency in 1998,
Abdullah made Prabowo an honorary Jordanian citizen. The Suharto family
has several investments in Jordan and having fled Indonesia, Prabowo
himself now lives in Jordan.
The Abdullah-Prabowo connection is
common knowledge in Indonesia – so is Prabowo's former command of
special forces in East Timor – but the United Nations appears to have
had little choice other than to accept the Jordanians. "No one else
was prepared to deploy a complete battalion" into the area, U.N.
official Sergio de Mello told Agence France-Presse.
There are two possible
explanations for Jordan's sudden involvement in a peacekeeping mission
on the other side of the globe. One is friendship.
East Timor is a soft spot for the government of President
Abdurrahman Wahid. And conspiracy has never been beyond hard-liners such
as Prabowo. In 1997, he was
rumored to have instigated massive street riots in Jakarta that were to
presage a military take-over; instead the insurrection was the downfall
of the Suharto government and cost Prabowo his post. Though he lives in
Jordan, Prabowo still surfaces in Indonesia from time to time.
On Jan. 7, the Jakarta Post reported that he met with the chief
of the Army Strategic Reserve Command, Lt. Gen. Djaja Suparman, and army
chief of staff Gen. Tyasno Sudharto.
The other explanation is more
complex and may reach farther into the Arab world. Hard-liners of the
Suharto era also have ties with the government of Libya. Libyan leader
Moammar Gadhafi trained separatists in Aceh in the 1980s, then grew
close to the Suharto government in the 1990s. Indonesia even advocated
the lifting of international sanctions on Libya. Last year, Libya stated
that it supported the "territorial sovereignty" of Indonesia
while the West debated sending a peacekeeping force to East Timor.
Libya's statement was not only pro-Indonesia but it appealed to
conservatives in Indonesia's military, which viewed peacekeepers as an
occupying force.
The old Suharto government may be
calling in old favors from Arab nations to keep a hand in events in the
archipelago. Just days after Jordan announced that it would send troops
to Timor, Libya agreed to conclude long-running negotiations and help
King Abdullah's government build a $730 million water project. Gadhafi
has until now been miserly with Libya's money, failing to offer any
major financial assistance to any Arab country in the last 18 months.
Just six months ago he announced his nation's "divorce" from
the Arab world and a shift to Africa. Libyan and Jordanian ties are,
more broadly, improving as well.
Given the historical relationship
between Libya and figures of the Suharto regime, it is not unreasonable
to think that Libya could use its influence with separatists in Aceh
while Jordanian troops bring their own influence to East Timor. Either
or both scenarios would put considerable pressure on Wahid's government,
encouraging other separatists and strengthening the argument for greater
military involvement.
It seems that Wahid himself may be
concerned with foreign influence in Indonesia's troubled provinces. Upon
assuming the presidency, Wahid declared that he would take personal
responsibility for resolving the crisis in Aceh – and then went on a
string of international visits. He stopped in Jordan and is due to visit
Libya in March.
The Indonesian press is filled
with rumors that elements of the military are instigating unrest
throughout the archipelago. Hard-liners do appear to be generating
instability and unrest to pressure Wahid and his government. And with or
without the Libyan connection, they are getting help from the Arab
world.
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