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The Prabowo- Jordanian Connection

02/02/00
Stratfor Special Report

Summary

The planned deployment of a brigade of Jordanian troops to East Timor, as part of the international peacekeeping force, is raising alarms in the former Indonesian-occupied territory. Jordan has had longstanding ties with a top, hard-line military official of the old Suharto regime. The motives of Jordan's government are questionable. And the pending arrival of the troops strongly suggests that members of the Suharto regime are using old connections in the Arab world to stir up trouble in Timor – and ultimately in Jakarta.

Analysis

On Jan. 22, Jose Ramos-Horta, an East Timorese independence leader, raised concern at the announcement that 720 Jordanian troops will join the U.N.  peacekeeping force in East Timor. Horta cited a reportedly longstanding connection between the Jordanian government and retired Lt. Gen. Prabowo Subianto, former commander of Indonesia's Kopassus special forces and son-in-law of former President Suharto.

Interestingly, Jordan has been the only nation to volunteer to patrol the northwestern enclave of Oecussi, a site of significant militia violence despite the presence of 8,900 U.N. peacekeepers on the island. The East Timorese are concerned because Prabowo – feared and despised in East Timor – has reportedly had close ties to King Abdullah of Jordan. The Jordanian troops may not, in fact, stop militia fighters from continuing to harass the East Timorese. But the connection may run deeper. Hard-liners from the Suharto era may be using connections in the Arab world to stir trouble back home.

The best known of these connections is the one between Prabowo, a special forces officer, and King Abdullah, also a commando. The two attended foreign military training together, according to the Australian Associated Press, and both returned home to command special forces units assigned to internal security missions. According to the Jakarta Post, the two men set up military exchange programs between their respective armed forces during the Suharto years. When Suharto resigned from the presidency in 1998, Abdullah made Prabowo an honorary Jordanian citizen. The Suharto family has several investments in Jordan and having fled Indonesia, Prabowo himself now lives in Jordan.

The Abdullah-Prabowo connection is common knowledge in Indonesia – so is Prabowo's former command of special forces in East Timor – but the United Nations appears to have had little choice other than to accept the Jordanians. "No one else was prepared to deploy a complete battalion" into the area, U.N. official Sergio de Mello told Agence France-Presse.

There are two possible explanations for Jordan's sudden involvement in a peacekeeping mission on the other side of the globe. One is friendship.  East Timor is a soft spot for the government of President Abdurrahman Wahid. And conspiracy has never been beyond hard-liners such as Prabowo.  In 1997, he was rumored to have instigated massive street riots in Jakarta that were to presage a military take-over; instead the insurrection was the downfall of the Suharto government and cost Prabowo his post. Though he lives in Jordan, Prabowo still surfaces in Indonesia from time to time.  On Jan. 7, the Jakarta Post reported that he met with the chief of the Army Strategic Reserve Command, Lt. Gen. Djaja Suparman, and army chief of staff Gen. Tyasno Sudharto.

The other explanation is more complex and may reach farther into the Arab world. Hard-liners of the Suharto era also have ties with the government of Libya. Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi trained separatists in Aceh in the 1980s, then grew close to the Suharto government in the 1990s. Indonesia even advocated the lifting of international sanctions on Libya. Last year, Libya stated that it supported the "territorial sovereignty" of Indonesia while the West debated sending a peacekeeping force to East Timor. Libya's statement was not only pro-Indonesia but it appealed to conservatives in Indonesia's military, which viewed peacekeepers as an occupying force.

The old Suharto government may be calling in old favors from Arab nations to keep a hand in events in the archipelago. Just days after Jordan announced that it would send troops to Timor, Libya agreed to conclude long-running negotiations and help King Abdullah's government build a $730 million water project. Gadhafi has until now been miserly with Libya's money, failing to offer any major financial assistance to any Arab country in the last 18 months. Just six months ago he announced his nation's "divorce" from the Arab world and a shift to Africa. Libyan and Jordanian ties are, more broadly, improving as well.

Given the historical relationship between Libya and figures of the Suharto regime, it is not unreasonable to think that Libya could use its influence with separatists in Aceh while Jordanian troops bring their own influence to East Timor. Either or both scenarios would put considerable pressure on Wahid's government, encouraging other separatists and strengthening the argument for greater military involvement.

It seems that Wahid himself may be concerned with foreign influence in Indonesia's troubled provinces. Upon assuming the presidency, Wahid declared that he would take personal responsibility for resolving the crisis in Aceh – and then went on a string of international visits. He stopped in Jordan and is due to visit Libya in March.

The Indonesian press is filled with rumors that elements of the military are instigating unrest throughout the archipelago. Hard-liners do appear to be generating instability and unrest to pressure Wahid and his government. And with or without the Libyan connection, they are getting help from the Arab world.